The Futures of Anticipatory Reason

Coming out very soon at Security Dialogue is a piece I worked on together with Piotr Szpunar, whose book Homegrown: Identity and Difference in the American War on Terror came out last year with NYU Press – so both of us looking closely at current developments in surveillance, counter-terrorism and the demand to predict. In the article, we argue that anticipatory security practices (just one part of the even broader current obsession with prediction) invoke the future to open up wiggle room for unorthodox, uncertain and otherwise problematic claims about people. This gap, which we call ‘epistemic black market’, is very useful for the flexibility it affords security practices – flexibility that is typically used to reinforce longstanding biases and power relations, exemplified by the continuing insistence on the figure of the brown, Muslim terrorist.

You can find the pre-proofread version on this site here.

 

Abstract:

This article examines invocations of the future in contemporary security discourse and practice. This future constitutes not a temporal zone of events to come, or a horizon of concrete visions for tomorrow, but an indefinite source of contingency and speculation. The ongoing proliferation of predictive, pre-emptive and otherwise anticipatory security practices strategically utilise the future to circulate the kinds of truths, beliefs, claims, that might otherwise be difficult to legitimise. The article synthesises critical security studies with broader humanistic thought on the future, with a focus on the sting operations in recent US counter-terrorism practice. It argues that the future today functions as an ‘epistemic black market’; a zone of tolerated unorthodoxy where boundaries defining proper truth-claims become porous and flexible. Importantly, this epistemic flexibility is often leveraged towards a certain conservatism, where familiar relations of state control are reconfirmed and expanded upon. This conceptualisation of the future has important implications for standards of truth and justice, as well as public imaginations of security practices, in a period of increasingly pre-emptive and anticipatory securitisation.

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Smart Machines and Enlightenment Dreams (2)

In part one, I mentioned a ‘nagging suspicion’:

aren’t (1) the fantastically optimistic projections around objective data & AI, and (2) the increasingly high-profile crises of fake news, algorithmic bias, and in short, ‘bad’ machinic information, linked in some way? And aren’t both these hopes and fears rooted, perhaps, in the Enlightenment’s image of the knowing subject?

As usual, we’re caught up in two seemingly opposite fantasies. First, that the human is a biased, stupid, unreliable processor of information, and must be augmented – e.g. by the expanding industry of smart machines for self-tracking. Second, that the individual can know for themselves, they can find the truth, if only they can be more educated, ingest more information – e.g. by watching more Jordan Peterson videos.

Below are some of my still-early thoughts around what we might call the rise of personal truthmaking: an individualistic approach that says technology is going to empower people to know better than the experts, often in cynical and aggressive opposition to institutional truth, but a style that we find in normative discourses around fact-checking and media literacy as well as by redpilled conspiracy theorists, and in mainstream marketisation of smart devices as well as the public concern around the corruption of politics.

 

Smart machines

Let’s start with the relatively celebrated, mainstream instance, a frontrunner in all the latest fads in data futurism. Big data is passé; the contrarian cool is with small data, the n=1, where you measure your exercise, quantify your sleep, analyse your productivity, take pictures of your shit, get an app to listen to you having sex, to discover the unique truths about you and nobody else, and use that data to ping, nudge, gamify yourself to a better place.

Implicit here is a clear message of individual empowerment: you can know yourself in a way that the experts cannot. Take the case of Larry Smarr, whose self-tracking exploits were widely covered by mainstream media as well as self-tracking communities. Smarr made a 3D model of his gut microbiota, and tracked it in minute detail:

smarr screencap

This, Smarr says, helped him diagnose the onset of Crohn’s disease before the doctors could. He speaks about the limitations of the doctor-patient relationship, and how, given the limited personal attention the healthcare system can afford for your own idiosyncratic body and lifestyle, you are the one that has to take more control. Ironically, there is a moment where Kant, in his 1784 What is Enlightenment?, broaches the same theme:

It is so easy to be immature [unmündigkeit]. If I have […] a doctor who judges my diet for me […] surely I do not need to trouble myself. I have no need to think, if only I can pay.

To be sure, Kant is no proto-anti-vaxxer. Leaving aside for a moment (though a major topic for my research) the many readings of aufklärung and its place in historicising the Enlightenment, we can glimpse in that text a deep tension between the exhortation to overcome tutelage, to have the courage to use your own understanding, and the pursuit of universally objective truth as the basis for rationalisation and reform. And it is this tension that again animates the contemporary fantasy of ubiquitous smart machines that will know you better than you know yourself, and in the process empower a knowing, rational, happy individual.

Now, it just so happens that Larry Smarr is a director at Calit2, a pioneer of supercomputing tech. He has the money, the tech savvy, the giant room to install his gut in triple-XL. But for everybody else, the promise of personal knowledge often involves a new set of dependencies. As I’ve discussed elsewhere, the selling point of many of these devices is that they will collect the kind of data that lies beyond our own sensory capabilities, such as sleep disturbances or galvanic skin response, and that they will deliver data that is objective and impartial. It’s a kind of ‘personal’ empowerment that works by empowering a new class of personalised machines to, the advertising mantra goes, ‘know us better than we know ourselves’.

The book will focus on how this particular kind of truthmaking begins with the image of the hacker-enthusiast, tracking oneself by oneself using self-made tools, and over time, scales up to the appropriation of these data production lines by insurance companies, law enforcement, and other institutions of capture and control. But here, we might ask: how does this particular dynamic resonate with other contexts of personal truthmaking?

 

Redpilling

We might recall that what’s happening with self-tracking follows a well-worn pattern in technologies of datafication. With the likes of Google and Amazon, ‘personalisation’ meant two things at the same time. We were offered the boon of personal choice and convenience, but what we also got was a personalised form of surveillance, manipulation, and social sorting. In the world of data, there’s always a fine print to the promise of the personal – and often it’s the kind of fine print that lies beyond the reach of ordinary human lives and/or the human senses.

Fast forward a few years, and personalisation is again being raised as a pernicious, antidemocratic force. This time, it’s fake news, and the idea that we’re all falling into our own filter bubbles and rabbit holes, a world of delusions curated by youtube algorithms. When Russian-manufactured Facebook content looks like this:

fake post

we find no consistent and directly political message per se, but a more flexible and scattershot method. The aim is not to defeat a rival message in the game of public opinion and truthtelling, but to add noise to the game until it breaks down under the weight of unverifiable nonsense. It is this general erosion of established rules that allows half-baked, factually incorrect and otherwise suspect information to compete with more official ones.

We recognise here the long, generational decline across many Western nations of public trust in institutions that folks like Ethan Zuckerman has emphasised as the backdrop for the fake news epidemic. At the same time, as Fred Turner explains, the current disinformation epidemic is also an unintended consequence of what we thought was the best part about Internet technologies: the ability to give everyone a voice, to break down artificial gatekeepers, and allow more information to reach more people.

Consider the well known story of how the 2015 Charleston shooter began that path with a simple online search of ‘black on white crime’ – and stumbling on a range of sources, showing him an increasingly funneled branch of information around crime and race relations. In a way, he was doing exactly what we asked of the Internet and its users: consult multiple sources of information. Discover unlikely connections. Make up your own mind.

The same goes for the man who shot up a pizza restaurant because his research led him to believe Pizzagate was real. In a handwritten letter, Welch shows earnest regret about the harm he has done – because he sought to ‘help people’ and ‘end corruption that he truly felt was harming innocent lives.’

Here we find what danah boyd calls the backfire of media literacy. It’s not that these people ran away from information. The problem was that they dove into it with the confidence that they could read enough, process it properly, and come to the secret truth. Thus the meme is that you need to ‘redpilling’ yourself, to see the world in an objective way, to defeat the lies of the mainstream media.

Picture2

Once again, there is a certain displacement, the fine print, parallel to what we saw with self-tracking. Smart machines promise autonomous self-knowledge, but only by putting your trust in a new set of technological mediators to know you better than you know yourself. Redpilling invites individuals to do their research and figure out their own truth – but you’ll do it through a new class of mediators that help plug you into a network of alternative facts.

 

Charisma entrepreneurs

The Pizzagate shooter, we know, was an avid subscriber to Alex Jones’ Infowars. The trail of dependencies behind the promise of individual empowerment reveals shifting cultural norms around what a trustworthy, authentic, likeable source of information feels like.

America, of course, woke up to this shift in November 2016. And in the days after, the outgoing President offered a stern warning about the complicity of our new media technologies:

An explanation of climate change from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist looks exactly the same on your Facebook page as the denial of climate change by somebody on the Koch brothers’ payroll.

The assumption being, of course, that we would universally still find the Nobel a marker of unquestionable trust, and vice versa for Koch money. But what if a Harvard professorship is no longer such an unquestioned seal of guarantee, and what if being funded by oil money isn’t a death knell for your own credibility about climate change?

To describe these changes in terms of cynicism and paranoia is to capture an important part of this picture, but not all of it. We rarely pass from a world of belief to a world without, but from one set of heuristics and fantasies to another. What recent reports such as one on the ‘alternative influence network‘ of youtube microcelebrities reveals is the emergence of a certain charismatic form of truth-peddling.

By charismatic, I am contrasting the more serious, institutionalised bureaucratic styles to what Weber had called ‘charismatic authority’ [charismatische Herrschaft]: that which attracts belief precisely through its appearance as an unorganised, extraordinary form of truth. It’s critical here to distinguish this charisma from some internal psychological power, as if certain people possess a magical quality to entrance others. Weber considered charisma in more or less relational terms, as an effect of others’ invested belief, and something which often undergirds more institutionalised forms of power as well. The key is to understand charisma’s self-presentation as an explicitly extra-institutional circuit, through which actors are able to promise truth and action too radical for normal process, and to claim a certain ideological purity or proximity to Truth beyond the messiness of the status quo.

We can immediately recognise how alternative influencers, elements of the far-right, etc. have sought to turn issues like anti-political correctness into a marker of such charismatic authority. And individuals like Jones become exhibits in the emerging performative styles of such charisma, from his regular Mongol horde-like forays into the mainstream to pick up notoriety, or his self-righteous masculine rage as a default emotional state:

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But we should add to that a couple of slightly less obvious dimensions, ones which make clear the parallels and resonances across the different businesses that sell the fantasy of personal truthmaking.

The first is that influencers like Jones consistently claim that they are the rational ones, they are the ones that go for scientific evidence, they are the true heirs of the Enlightenment. The common refrain is: I’m not gonna tell you what to think: I just want to inform you about what’s happening, about Pizzagate, about fluoride in your water, about the vaccines, and let you make up your own mind. The reams of paper strewn about Jones’ desk, regularly waved at the camera with gusto, are markers of this seeming commitment to Reason and data – even though, in many cases, this ‘evidence’ is simply Infowars articles reprinted to testify on Infowars the show.

Alex Jones doesn’t reject the Enlightenment; he wants to own it.

Second, all this is further complicated by the commercialised structure of this charismatic truthmaking. Alex Jones isn’t just a fearless truthspeaker, but also a full time vitamin peddler. While Jones works to obscure his exact revenue and audience numbers, his ‘side’ business of dubious supplements has grown into a major source of funding that helps support the continued production of political content. In his many infomercials seeded into the show, Jones touts products like Super Male Vitality – a mostly pointless mixture of common herbal ingredients packed with a premium price and a phallic rubber stopper.

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Recently, Jones has updated his stock with products like “Happease” – “Declare war on stress and fatigue with mother nature’s ultimate weapons” – in a clear nod to the more dominant market of highly feminised wellness markets (think Gwyneth Paltrow’s goop and its ‘Psychic Vampire Repellent’). The connection between fake news and fake pills is made clear in one of Jones’ own sales pitches:

You know, many revolutionaries rob banks, and kidnap people for funds. We promote in the free market the products we use that are about preparedness. That’s how we fund this revolution for the new world order.

Such shifts threaten to leave Obama’s earlier warning behind as a quaint reminder of older standards. For instance, exposing someone’s financial conflict of interest used to be a surefire way to destroy their credibility as a neutral, objective truthteller. But how do we adapt if that equation has changed? As Sarah Banet-Weiser has shown in Authentic, you can now sell out and be authentic, you can brand your authenticity. You can make your name as a mysterious, counter-cultural graffiti artist speaking truth to power, and then make a killing auctioning your piece at Sotheby’s, having the piece rip itself up on front of the buyer’s eyes – and they will love how real it is. In such times, can we really win the battle for reason by showing how transparent and independent our fact-checkers are?

 

Truth isn’t truth

Today, we often say truth is in crisis. The emblematic moment was the Marches for Science, which brought out outrage, but also a certain Sisyphean exasperation. Haven’t we been through this already? Surely truth is truth? Surely the correct path of history has already been established, and what must be done is to remind everyone of this?

science march combo

Well, Rudy Giuliani has the answer for us: truth isn’t truth. Facts are in the eyes of the beholder, or at least, nowadays they are. Or, to be less glib: the struggle today is not simply between truth and ignorance, science and anger – a binary in which the right side goes without saying, and the wrong side is the dustbin of history screaming and wailing for the hopefully final time. Rather, it is a struggle over what kinds of authorities, what kinds of ways of talking and thinking, might count as rational, and how everybody’s trying to say the data and the technology are on their side.

It’s a twisted kind of Enlightenment, where the call to know for yourself, to use Reason, doesn’t unify us on common ground, but becomes a weapon to wield against the other side. Insisting on the restoration and revalorisation of objective journalism or faith in objective science might be tempting, and certainly an essential part of any realistic solution. But taken too far, they risk becoming just as atavistic as MAGA: a reference point cast deep enough into the mist, that it sustains us as fantasy precisely as something on the cusp of visibility and actuality. A nice dream about Making America Modern Again.

Information has always required an expansive set of emotional, imaginative, irrational investments in order to keep the engines running. What we see in self-tracking and charismatic entrepreneurs are emerging ‘disruptive’ groups that transform the ecosystem for the production and circulation of such imaginations. We might then ask: what is the notion of the good life quietly holding up, and spreading through, the futurism of smart machines or the paranoid reason of charismatic influencer?

 

When you can trust nobody, trust the smart machine

I will be at AOIR in Montreal, 10-13 October to present some newer work as I look beyond the book. Below is one brief summary of ongoing investigations:


 

What is the connection between smart machines, self-tracking, and the ongoing mis/disinformation epidemic? They are part of a broader shift in the social rules of truth and trust. Emerging today is a strange alliance of objectivity, technology and the ‘personal’ – often cast in opposition to the aging bastions of institutional expertise. The fantasy of an empowered individual who ‘knows for themselves’ smuggles in a new set of dependencies on opaque and powerful technologies.

 

1.

On one hand, individuals are encouraged to know more, and to take that knowing into their own hands. Emblematic is the growth of the self-tracking industry: measure your own health and productivity, discover the unique correlations that make you tick, and take control of rationalising and optimising your life. Taglines of ‘n=1’ and ‘small data’ sloganise the vision: the intrepid, tech-savvy individual on an empowering and personal quest to self-knowledge. Implicit here is a revalorisation of the personal and experiential: you have a claim to the truth of your body in ways that the doctor cannot, despite all their learned expertise. This is territory that I go into in some detail in the book.

 

smarr screencap.png

And so, Calit2’s Larry Smarr builds a giant 3D projection of his own microbiome – which, he claims, helped him diagnose the onset of Crohn’s disease before the doctors could.

 

But what does it mean to take control and know yourself, if this knowing happens through technologies that operate beyond the limits of the human senses? Subsidiary to the wider enthusiasm for big data, smart machines and machine learning, the value proposition of much (not all) of self-tracking tech is predicated on the promise of data-driven objectivity: the idea that the machines will know us better than we know ourselves, and correct the biases and ‘fuzziness’ of human senses, cognition, memory. And this claim to objectivity is predicated on a highly physical relationship: these smart machines live on the wrist, under the bedsheets, sometimes even in the user’s body, embedding their observations, notifications, recommendations, into the lived rhythms of everyday life. What we find is a very particular mixture of the personal and the machinic, the objective and the experiential: know yourself – through machines that know you better than you do.

 

risley affidavit.png

Jeannine Risley’s Fitbit data is used to help disprove her claims of being raped by an intruder. What is called ‘self-knowledge’ becomes increasingly capable being disassociated from the control and intentions of the ‘self’.

 

2.

Another transformative site for how we know and how we trust is that of political mis/disinformation. While the comparison is neither simple nor obvious, I am exploring the idea that they are animated by a common, broader shift towards a particular alliance of the objective, machinic and ‘personal’. In the political sphere, its current enemies are well-defined: institutional expertise, bureaucratic truthmaking and, in a piece of historical irony, liberalism as the dishonest face of a privileged elite. Here, new information technologies are leveraged towards what van Zoonen labelled ‘i-pistemology’: the embrace of personal and experiential truth in opposition to top-down and expert factmaking.

 

fake post.png

In such ‘deceptive’ social media postings, we find no comprehensive and consistent message per se, but a more flexible and scattershot method. The aim is not to defeat a rival message in the game of public opinion and truthtelling, but to add noise to the game until it breaks down. It is this general erosion of established rules that allows half-baked, factually incorrect and otherwise suspect information to compete with more official ones.

 

The ongoing ‘fake news’ epidemic of course has roots in post-Cold War geopolitics, and the free speech ideology embedded into social media platforms and their corporate custodians. But it is also an extension of a decades-long decline in public trust of institutions and experts. It is also an unintended consequence of what we thought was the best part about Internet technologies: the ability to give everyone a voice, to break down artificial gatekeepers, and allow more information to reach more people. It is well known how Dylann Roof, who killed nine in the 2015 Charleston massacre, began that path with a simple online search of ‘black on white crime’. The focus here is on what danah boyd identified as a loss of orienting anchors in the age of online misinformation: emerging generations of media users who are taught to assemble their own eclectic mix of truths in a hyper-pluralistic media environment, while also learning a deep distrust of official sources.

 

science march combo.png

2017 saw the March for Science: an earnest defence of evidence-based, objective, institutionalised truth as an indispensable tool for the government of self and others. The underlying sentiment: this isn’t an agenda for a particular kind of truth and trust, this is just reality – and anyway, didn’t we already settle this debate? But the debate over what counts as reality and how we get access to it is never quite settled.

 

3.

These are strange and unsettling combinations: the displacement of trust from institutions to technologies in the guise of the empowered ‘I’, and the related proliferation of alternative forms of truthtelling. My current suspicion is that they express an increasingly unstable set of contradictions in our long-running relationship with the Enlightenment. On one hand, we find the enduring belief in better knowledge, especially through depersonalised and inhuman forms of objectivity, as the ticket to rational and informed human subjects. At the same time, this figure of the individual who knows for themselves – found in Kant’s inaugural call of Sapere aude! – is increasingly subject to both deliberate and structural manipulations by sociotechnical systems. We are pushed to discover our ‘personal truths’ in the wilderness of speculation, relying only on ourselves – which, in practice, often means relying on technologies whose workings escape our power to audit. There is nobody you can trust these days, but the smart machine shall not lead you astray.